William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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STUNNING POLL RESULT – AT 7:09 P.M. ET:  We're having a midterm Congressional election this year.  Normally, the party of the president loses substantially in Congress in the first midterm following the presidential election.

And so it has been expected that the Democrats will gain in November, maybe even enough to take over one or both houses of Congress.  Indeed, polls only a few months ago showed the Dems, as a party, with a double-digit lead over the GOP.

But wait a minute.  What's this?

This is a new CNN poll that sounds alarm bells for the smug Dems.  It follows a trend we've been seeing since those double-digit-lead days.  From CNN: 

Washington  (CNN) The generic congressional ballot has continued to tighten, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, with the Democrats' edge over Republicans within the poll's margin of sampling error for the first time this cycle.

About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress. 

COMMENT:  Aside from the obvious erosion of Democratic strength, the poll provides further bad news for the Democrats.  Note that the survey was taken among registered voters.  Polls of likely voters are almost always more accurate, and almost always show more Republican support – because Republicans are more reliable voters.

The Dems cannot be happy.  Maybe they should spend more time coming up with attractive proposals, and attractive candidates, and less time hating the president.  Ya think?

May 9, 2018